Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 5 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 21 July 2026 at 20:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 7th strongest of the 88 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 5 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 21 at 3:46PM EDT until July 21 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA
Urban PEI: 378,804 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- August 5, 2026 · score 43 · 12.6 km
- July 21, 2026 · score 43 · 14.0 km
- September 18, 2026 · score 37 · 19.3 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 37 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 37 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.79/1 |
| Coordinates | 38.5667, -82.8349 |
| Nearest City | Ashland (20 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 378.8K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-21T19:46:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a8abfb64e50dd9b3738742b35c868f9b |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-21T19:46:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-21T19:49:47.456Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Caroline, VA; Chesterfield, VA; Goochland, VA; Hanover, VA; Henrico, VA; King and Queen, VA; King William, VA; Powhatan, VA; City of Richmond, VA; Appomattox, VA; Campbell, VA; Pocahontas, WV; Randolph, WV and 9 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 21 at 3:46PM EDT until July 21 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA |
| Expires | 2026-07-21T16:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Wakefield VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 12 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a8abfb64e50dd9b3738742b35c868f9bf1c626b8.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.beed631ab84fa2d4689e4de37449d29527eb0d16.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.48f6f8e8d7a66ccb92e1c5640cf01ecae9d3c704.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e25b8082f8b7b057149a8287dbbf4595f4fd5651.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.423aa7e35a743efe79b47725257686d1fdba4540.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d5b75231f87ac60747a5f6bf8941830261df743e.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.2439cb6dd6cf6729743895e556244c32f2bbe0c0.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.82d768bddcea92719676d5b16bd68be3073e2c7e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.559e6b97da34dee1d4f076236bfb6bfdfab7f31f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.da9752e85d86ca9a8966e82792f80397e196e1f2.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c26a441662e91b0eaba84073fef6cb62d8637e8f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e08a46342c9d8e2592209ae0835fe2d2ed28dbcf.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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